The Home Run Derby returns with a bang after being canceled in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Per regular, the competitors is broad open, and bettors are licking their chops on the odds on a few of these energy hitters.
Shohei Ohtani is the one competitor who ranks within the high 5 amongst MLB’s house run leaders as of this writing, however there nonetheless is loads of pop on this yr’s derby area. Mets slugger Pete Alonso is again to defend his 2019 title and gamers comparable to Joey Gallo, Matt Olson and Salvador Perez will battle for the title as effectively.
In fact, Ohtani is the largest draw as his 32 homers led the majors by way of July 8. However after seeing the No. 1 seed bow out in three consecutive occasions, are you able to belief Ohtani to win this yr’s derby? Or are there higher worth picks for bettors to deal with?
Right here is an in-depth have a look at the chances and Sporting Information’ finest bets for the 2021 Home Run Derby.
MORE: Who declined invites to the 2021 Home Run Derby?
2021 Home Run Derby odds
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Eight gamers are collaborating within the 2021 Home Run Derby, and Shohei Ohtani (+380) is the favourite to emerge because the victor. Ohtani led MLB with 32 homers and a .700 slugging share by way of July 8.
Joey Gallo (+475), Pete Alonso (+550), Matt Olson (+650) and Salvador Perez (+650) all examine in with mid-tier odds. Alonso, the No. 5 seed, is the one lower-seeded participant to be favored in his opening-round matchup; he’ll tackle the No. 4-seeded Perez.
Trevor Story (+800), Juan Soto (+800) and Trey Mancini (+850) are all thought-about lengthy pictures to win the occasion.
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2021 Home Run Derby professional picks
Finest picks to win 2021 Home Run Derby
Joey Gallo (+475). Gallo is in a good state of affairs forward of the 2021 Home Run Derby. He’s the No. 2 seed within the area and landed on what seems to be the better aspect of the bracket. The Rangers’ star will face off towards Trevor Story in Spherical 1 earlier than dealing with the winner of the Matt Olson vs. Trey Mancini battle. Gallo ought to have a leg up on all three of these hitters.
Gallo has hit 23 homers this season and is tied for the league lead in no-doubt homers with 16, per BaseballSavant.com. The opposite gamers to succeed in that mark are Shohei Ohtani, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Mike Zunino. Extra impressively, Gallo’s 69.6 no-doubt homer share ranks sixth amongst gamers with a minimum of 15 homers on the yr.
So, when Gallo hits homers, he launches them. Moreover, he has homered 10 occasions in his final 10 video games. He is rounding into type on the proper time and if he stays scorching, he ought to have a fantastic likelihood to win his aspect of the bracket. The ultimate could be a little bit of a toss-up no matter who Gallo performs, however he can compete with anybody on this area.
Pete Alonso (+550). Selecting Alonso over Ohtani on the left aspect of the bracket is a threat, however pretty much as good as Ohtani has been, the numbers recommend that the 2019 Home Run Derby champion may problem him.
Alonso has clubbed simply 15 homers thus far this season, however like Gallo, they’ve been of the convincing selection. Eleven of his 15 lengthy balls have been no-doubt homers. His no-doubt homer share of 73.3 ranks second-best amongst gamers with a minimum of 15 homers on the yr and first among the many eight derby members.
Moreover, Alonso’s exit velocity topped out at 117.1 this season. That is the sixth-highest max exit velocity amongst MLB gamers, and he trails solely Ohtani (119) amongst derby members for the lead in that class.
Although Alonso’s path to the ultimate is daunting — he’ll must knock off Salvador Perez and the winner of the Ohtani vs. Juan Soto battle to get there — he is an effective worth decide to win. His energy and energy paint a good image for him. So does his earlier derby expertise, as he hit 57 homers throughout the 2019 occasion.
Finest prop bets for the 2021 Home Run Derby
Prime prop bets might be posted as they change into obtainable.
What number of house runs might be hit in 2021 Home Run Derby?
There are not any over/underneath prop bets on whole homers for the 2021 Home Run Derby but, however once they change into obtainable, bettors will seemingly need to lean on the over.
For the reason that Home Run Derby modified codecs from an outs-based competitors to a time-based competitors, gamers have hit rising numbers of homers virtually yearly. The truth is, homers have elevated yr to yr in all however one of many final 5 occasions underneath the brand new guidelines.
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The 2019 derby’s quantity was inflated by the 79-homer battle between Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Joc Pederson that took three tiebreakers to settle. It may be exhausting for the 2021 derby to eclipse the 311 determine with out comparable tiebreak luck.
Nonetheless, the occasion ought to produce numerous homers and will close to 300 if all goes effectively. Coors Area is likely one of the most hitter-friendly environments within the league and MLB may select to make use of juiced baseballs to create extra house runs.
Both method, viewers can as soon as once more count on to see many lengthy balls fly by way of the skinny Denver air.