The Home Run Derby returns with a bang after being canceled in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Per common, the competitors is broad open, and bettors are licking their chops on the odds on a few of these energy hitters.
Shohei Ohtani is the one competitor who ranks within the prime 5 amongst MLB’s residence run leaders as of this writing, however there nonetheless is loads of pop on this 12 months’s derby discipline. Mets slugger Pete Alonso is again to defend his 2019 title and gamers reminiscent of Joey Gallo, Matt Olson and Salvador Perez will combat for the title as effectively.
In fact, Ohtani is the most important draw as his 32 homers led the majors via July 8. However after seeing the No. 1 seed bow out in three consecutive occasions, are you able to belief Ohtani to win this 12 months’s derby? Or are there higher worth picks for bettors to deal with?
Right here is an in-depth have a look at the chances and Sporting Information’ greatest bets for the 2021 Home Run Derby.
MORE: Who declined invites to the 2021 Home Run Derby?
2021 Home Run Derby odds
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Eight gamers are collaborating within the 2021 Home Run Derby, and Shohei Ohtani (+380) is the favourite to emerge because the victor. Ohtani led MLB with 32 homers and a .700 slugging share via July 8.
Joey Gallo (+475), Pete Alonso (+550), Matt Olson (+650) and Salvador Perez (+650) all test in with mid-tier odds. Alonso, the No. 5 seed, is the one lower-seeded participant to be favored in his opening-round matchup; he’ll tackle the No. 4-seeded Perez.
Trevor Story (+800), Juan Soto (+800) and Trey Mancini (+850) are all thought of lengthy photographs to win the occasion.
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2021 Home Run Derby professional picks
Finest picks to win 2021 Home Run Derby
Joey Gallo (+475). Gallo is in a good scenario forward of the 2021 Home Run Derby. He’s the No. 2 seed within the discipline and landed on what seems to be the better aspect of the bracket. The Rangers’ star will face off in opposition to Trevor Story in Spherical 1 earlier than going through the winner of the Matt Olson vs. Trey Mancini battle. Gallo ought to have a leg up on all three of these hitters.
Gallo has hit 23 homers this season and is tied for the league lead in no-doubt homers with 16, per BaseballSavant.com. The opposite gamers to succeed in that mark are Shohei Ohtani, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Mike Zunino. Extra impressively, Gallo’s 69.6 no-doubt homer share ranks sixth amongst gamers with not less than 15 homers on the 12 months.
So, when Gallo hits homers, he launches them. Moreover, he has homered 10 occasions in his final 10 video games. He is rounding into kind on the proper time and if he stays sizzling, he ought to have an important likelihood to win his aspect of the bracket. The ultimate can be a little bit of a toss-up no matter who Gallo performs, however he can compete with anybody on this discipline.
Pete Alonso (+550). Selecting Alonso over Ohtani on the left aspect of the bracket is a threat, however pretty much as good as Ohtani has been, the numbers counsel that the 2019 Home Run Derby champion might problem him.
Alonso has clubbed simply 15 homers to date this season, however like Gallo, they’ve been of the convincing selection. Eleven of his 15 lengthy balls have been no-doubt homers. His no-doubt homer share of 73.3 ranks second-best amongst gamers with not less than 15 homers on the 12 months and first among the many eight derby members.
Moreover, Alonso’s exit velocity topped out at 117.1 this season. That is the sixth-highest max exit velocity amongst MLB gamers, and he trails solely Ohtani (119) amongst derby members for the lead in that class.
Although Alonso’s path to the ultimate is daunting — he’ll need to knock off Salvador Perez and the winner of the Ohtani vs. Juan Soto battle to get there — he is an efficient worth choose to win. His energy and power paint a good image for him. So does his earlier derby expertise, as he hit 57 homers through the 2019 occasion.
Finest prop bets for the 2021 Home Run Derby
High prop bets will likely be posted as they turn out to be accessible.
What number of residence runs will likely be hit in 2021 Home Run Derby?
There are not any over/below prop bets on whole homers for the 2021 Home Run Derby but, however once they turn out to be accessible, bettors will possible wish to lean on the over.
For the reason that Home Run Derby modified codecs from an outs-based competitors to a time-based competitors, gamers have hit growing numbers of homers nearly yearly. In truth, homers have elevated 12 months to 12 months in all however one of many final 5 occasions below the brand new guidelines.
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The 2019 derby’s quantity was inflated by the 79-homer battle between Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Joc Pederson that took three tiebreakers to settle. It may be arduous for the 2021 derby to eclipse the 311 determine with out comparable tiebreak luck.
Nonetheless, the occasion ought to produce various homers and will close to 300 if all goes effectively. Coors Area is without doubt one of the most hitter-friendly environments within the league and MLB might select to make use of juiced baseballs to create extra residence runs.
Both approach, viewers can as soon as once more count on to see many lengthy balls fly via the skinny Denver air.